Atlantic – Hurricane Earl:Major Hurricane Earl continues to track towards the coast of North Carolina and is possibly gaining strength and could be a dangerous and destructive category 4 hurricane as it passes either just off the coast or over the coast of North Carolina. I cannot stress the importance of being prepared for this storm even if you are 150 miles from the coast, you can experience significant severe weather. If you are asked to evacuate, then please do so.
Tropical Storm Fiona is moving northward from the Leeward Islands, however Tropical Depression #9 has been born in the Atlantic and will follow a similar track as Earl Fiona – thus the tropical storms are not finished for the Northern Leeward Islands. But wait there is more – the latest satellite shows another storm forming south of the Cape Verde Islands and should become another tropical cyclone in about 2 to 4 days.
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Earl was located about 275 miles (440 km) east of Abaco Island in the Bahamas about 680 miles (1095 km) south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina. Earl is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/hr) and this motion is expected to continue today with a gradual turn to the north on Thursday. On the forecast track, the core of the hurricane will continue to move well east and northeast of the Bahamas today and tonight and will approach the North Carolina coast by late Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 125 mph (205 km/hr) with higher gusts. Earl is a category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale. However, preliminary data from an Air Force plane indicate that the hurricane is beginning to strengthen and Earl could again become a category four hurricane later today. Earl is a large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 200 miles (325 km).
Watches and Warnings:
Hurricane Warningsare in effect for...
* Bogue Inlet North Carolina northeastward to the North Carolina/Virginia border including the Pamlico and Albemarle sounds.
Hurricane Watchesare in effect for...
* North of the North Carolina/Virginia border to Cape Henlopen Delaware.
Tropical Storm Warningsare in effect for...
* From Cape Fear to west of Bogue Inlet North Carolina.
Threats & Damages
Winds...Tropical storm force winds are expected to reach the North Carolina coast within the warning area by Thursday afternoon with hurricane force winds occurring by late Thursday.
Storm Surge...A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above ground level within the Hurricane Warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Rainfall...Accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 4 inches are expected over the Bahamas and extreme eastern North Carolina including the Outer Banks.
Surf...Large swells from Earl should affect the Bahamas and the southeastern coast of the United States today. These swells will likely cause dangerous surf conditions and rip currents.
Travel…Expect major travel disruptions from North Carolina northward for Friday and Saturday. If traveling, leave now or have a “Plan B” in place.
Long Term Forecast
After about 48 hours, Earl is expected to turn northward and make a run up to the Canadian Maritimes arriving Saturday morning a weak hurricane.
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Severe Weather Advisories is a subscription based service provided by the Swinden Group, LLC to corporations and business travelers so that they are prepared for severe weather that may negatively impact business and travel.
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