Atlantic and Eastern Pacific – Hurricane Danielle strengthens to a category 2 storm and should top out as a category 3 storm while Tropical Storm Earl will follow in her wake and should become a hurricane on Saturday. Hurricane Frank continues to move away from Mexico prior to weakening tomorrow and making a turn to Baja.
And wait there is more – one more tropical wave enters the eastern Atlantic.
Hurricane Danielle in the Atlantic
At 1100 am AST / EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Danielle was located about 630 miles (1015 km) northeast of the northern Leeward Islands and about 770 miles (1235 km) southeast of Bermuda. Danielle is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/hr) and this general motion is expected to continue with a gradual decrease in forward speed over the next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/hr) with higher gusts. Danielle is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24-36 hours and Danielle could become a major hurricane by tonight or Friday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).
Long Term Forecast
Over the next several days, Danielle will be on northwestwardly track and then make a turn to the north and northeast while beginning to weaken as it encounters cooler waters and wind shear. At this time it looks like Danielle will miss Bermuda and the Canadian Maritimes though both locations can expect an increase in surf.
Tropical Storm Earl in the Atlantic
At 1100 am AST / EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was located about 1735 miles (2795 km) east of the northern Leeward Islands. Earl is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/hr) and a west to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next 48 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/hr) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Earl could become a hurricane by early Saturday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center.
Long Term Forecast
Earl will continue to track westward while strengthening. After about three days, the storm should take a northwestwardly track away from the Lesser Antilles; however there is some uncertainty with regards to the shift to the northwest. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor closely the progress of this developing storm system.
And Finally in the Atlantic
Another low pressure system has moved off the African continent and his south of the Cape Verde Islands and like Danielle and Earl should eventually grow into a tropical cyclone within the next 72 hours or so.
Hurricane Frank in the Eastern Pacific
at 800 am PDT...1500 UTC...the center of Hurricane Frank was located about 380 miles (615 km) south of the southern tip of Baja California. Frank is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/hr). A turn toward the west-northwest with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or so.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/hr) with higher gusts. Frank is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Little change in strength is expected today followed by a gradual weakening trend on Friday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km).
Long Term Forecast
Frank should track west-northwest until the weekend and then make a turn to the north towards southern Baja, estimated landfall would be early next week if it remains together and not fall apart before reaching Baja. Interests and travelers to the southern section of Baja should start preparing for at least the possibility of flooding next week given the fact that even an inch of rain may cause flooding in this desert region. Frank is not expected to reach Baja as a tropical cyclone.
About the Swinden Group
The Swinden Group provides companies and organizations security, investigations, and risk management services worldwide. Severe Weather Advisories is a subscription based service provided by the Swinden Group to corporations and business travelers so that they are prepared for severe weather that may negatively impact business and travel.
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Contact:
Matthew Swinden
The Swinden Group, LLC
Phone: 303-406-3622
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