Besides the $30 billion in arms sales to Saudi Arabia, the United States has prepared a $0.9 billion Patriot ABM contract with Kuwait, and up to $30 billion worth of contracts with Israel and other Middle Eastern countries. The likelihood of Obama’s acceptance of the ayatollahs’ nuclear capability prompted a major spike in regional military procurement.

The fact that the United States sells Patriot missiles to Kuwait shows that Obama wants regional states to accept a nuclear Iran and balance it with defensive measures. But defense won’t do: Kuwait cannot defend itself against Iran, and no one believes that the US will come to its defense after refusing to adopt the much easier solution of depriving Iran of its nuclear arsenal.

The situation will soon be clear. Despite their earlier promises to delay loading fuel into the Bushehr reactor, the Russians have suddenly announced an August 21 deadline. They also placed S-300 in Abkhazia to counter an Israeli attack on Iran from Georgia and possibly Azerbaijan. The Russians will not use S-300 against Israeli planes, as that would be a clear act of war. Likewise, we’re far from certain that the new deadline on Bushehr will be any more firm than several previous deadlines.

Israel would find it politically problematic to destroy a hot reactor due to the possibility of contamination: it is apparently less problematic for Jewish leaders to accept nuclear contamination of Tel Aviv in a future confrontation with Iran. If Israeli intelligence believes the Russian promises on Bushehr, Iran has to be attacked this week.

The launching of the Bushehr reactor would be a boom to Obama, as it would end the Iranian nuclear standoff. Had he wanted to destroy Iranian nuclear facilities, it would have made more sense to bomb them sooner rather than later. Obama cannot be so stupid as to believe that the Iranians would give way under sanctions.