It has been a busy week here at the Swinden Group as we have been tracking and advising on a number of tropical cyclones across the globe. This morning we want to highlight Hurricane Earl and Tropical Storm Fiona in the Atlantic and then jump over to the Western Pacific and discuss Typhoon Kompasu which is presently over Okinawa but may have devastating effects on the Korean Peninsula later this week.
Atlantic – Leeward Islands – Hurricane Earl:As depicted by the above satellite image, Earl is moving away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Interest along the U.S. East Coast should begin preparations for this approaching storm. With a near miss, expect at least flooding rains along the coast and adjacent inland areas and damaging surf.
At 900 am AST / EDT (1300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Earl was located about 200 miles (325 km) north-northwest of San Juan Puerto Rico and about 230 miles (370 km) east of Grand Turk Island. Earl is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/hr). A gradual turn toward the northwest is expected today with the northwestward motion expected to continue through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Earl will continue to move away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands this morning and move over the open Atlantic east of the Turks and Caicos Islands later today and tonight.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 135 mph (215 km/hr) with higher gusts. Earl is a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale. Some fluctuations in strength are likely over the next 24 to 48 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 200 miles (325 km).
Watches & Warnings
Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for...
* Turks and Caicos Islands
Tropical Storm Watchesare in effect for…
* southeastern Bahamas
Threats & Damages
Wind...Tropical storm conditions will gradually subside over the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today. Stronger winds, especially in gusts, are likely over elevated terrain in Puerto Rico. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin to spread into the Turks and Caicos Islands by this afternoon.
Storm surge...Storm surge flooding and waves will begin to diminish in Puerto and the Virgin Islands today. Above normal tides, accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves, are possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas.
Rainfall...Earl is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches across portions of the U. S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today. Isolated maximum storm total amounts of 12 inches are possible in association with Earl. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
Long Term Forecast
Earl will gradually turn to the northwest while intensifying over the next 12 to 24 hours. After 48 hours, Earl is expected to begin weakening as it encounters cooler waters. Looks like the current track will bring Earl closer to the East Coast, thus interests from the Carolinas northward to New England should monitor the progress of Earl. There is still considerable uncertainty as to how close the hurricane will come to the U.S. East Coast.
Western Atlantic – Tropical Storm Fiona:On the heels of Earl, Fiona is sprinting westward towards the Leeward Islands. Interests in the Leeward Islands should prepare for at least flooding rains.
At 800 am AST / EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was located about 500 miles, 800 km E of the Leeward Islands. Fiona is moving toward the west-northwest near 24 mph (39 km/hr). A gradual turn toward the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is anticipated during the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Fiona is expected to pass near or northeast of the northern Leeward Islands early Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/hr) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is possible during the next day or two. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) to the north of the center. Because the storm has a rather large footprint, this actually hinders the development.
Watches & Warnings
Tropical Storm Warningsare in effect for...
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
Tropical Storm Watchesare in effect for...
* Antigua...Barbuda...Montserrat...St. Kitts...Nevis...and Anguilla
* St. Maarten...Saba...and St. Eustatius
Threats & Damages
Wind...tropical storm conditions could spread over portions of the northern Leeward Islands tonight or early Wednesday.
Rainfall…Expect heavy rains to trigger minor to moderate flooding and mudslides.
Long Term Forecast
Unlike Fiona’s brother Earl, she is having difficulty getting organized and is entering an environment that is not conducive to strengthening so Fiona is not expected to become a hurricane. For the next day or two, Fiona will track to the west-northwest and then more northwestward. She is not expected to pass over the Leeward Islands, however since tropical storm force winds extend out 140 miles from the center, her reach is rather long.
Western Pacific - Okinawa, Japan– Typhoon Kompasu:Kompasu strengthens into a category 2 hurricane and is located over Okinawa, Japan. Kompasu is expected to further strengthen and become a “super” typhoon in the Yellow Sea. Interests on the Korean Peninsula need to make preparations for this potentially damaging and dangerous storm.
At 0900 UTC, the center of Typhoon Kompasu was located about over Okinawa, Japan and is tracking to the northwest at 15 mph and is expected to continue on this track for the next 12 to 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are at 110 mph with higher gusts which makes Kompasu a category two storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Hurricane force winds extend out 25 miles while tropical storm force winds extend outward 105 miles from the center of the storm.
Threats & Damages
This storm will most likely have some devastating effects on the Korean Peninsula with coastal flooding due to storm surge, inland flooding and mudslides due to heavy rains, damage to buildings, especially poorly built structures, and damage to the infrastructure. Expect travel delays Thursday and Friday and possibly into the weekend.
Long Term Forecast
Once in the Yellow Sea, the storm is expected to turn to the northeast and begin to weaken and make landfall over the Korean Peninsula approximately Thursday.
About the Swinden Group
The Swinden Group provides companies and organizations security, investigations, and risk management services worldwide. Severe Weather Advisories is a subscription based service provided by the Swinden Group to corporations and business travelers so that they are prepared for severe weather that may negatively impact business and travel.
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Contact:
Matthew Swinden
The Swinden Group, LLC
Phone: 303-406-3622
Email: matt@theswindengroup.com
Twitter: www.twitter.com/SwindenGroup