Caribbean – Leeward Islands – Hurricane Earl:Earl is moving across the northern Leeward Islands as a category three or a major hurricane while growing stronger. After leaving the Caribbean, Earl will run up to the East Coast of the U.S. and onto the Canadian Maritime.
At 1100 am AST...1500 UTC...the center of Hurricane Earl was located about 95 miles (150 km) east-northeast of St. Thomas and about 165 miles (265 km) east of San Juan Puerto Rico. Earl is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/hr). This general motion is expected today and tonight followed by a turn toward the northwest on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Earl will pass near or over the northernmost Virgin Islands this afternoon and this evening.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/hr) with higher gusts. Earl is a category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). St. Maarten reported a wind gust to 68 mph (109 km/hr) within the past few hours.
Watches & Warnings
Hurricane Warnings are in effect for...
* Anguilla
* Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy
* St. Maarten...Saba...and St. Eustatius
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rican islands of Culebra and Vieques
Hurricane Watchesare in effect for...
* Puerto Rico
Tropical Storm Warningsare in effect for...
* Antigua...Barbuda...Montserrat...St. Kitts...and Nevis
* Puerto Rico
Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for…
* Turks and Caicos Islands
Threats & Damages
Wind...hurricane conditions will be spreading across the northern Virgin Islands during the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions will spread over portions of Puerto Rico this afternoon...with hurricane conditions possible this evening and tonight. Stronger winds, especially in gusts, are likely over elevated terrain in Puerto Rico. Expect minor to isolated major structural damage especially with those poorly built structures. Expect damage to the infrastructure to include power outages, and interruptions to water, sewer, and communications.
Storm surge...Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above ground level primarily near the coast in areas of onshore wind within the Hurricane Warning area and 1 to 3 feet in the Tropical Storm Warning area. The surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves. Expect coastal and adjacent inland flooding especially in the Hurricane Warning areas.
Rainfall...Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over the Leeward Islands...the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico...with possible isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches especially over higher elevations. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
Travel Delays…Expect travel delays and cancellations for parts of the Leeward Islands for the next couple of days. If traveling check before you
Long Term Forecast
Earl will be entering into an environment that will be conducive to additional strengthening while tracking the north-northwest. While it is still a bit early to give an exact track for days four and five, safe to say Early will come close enough to the East Coast of the U.S. to at least possibly provide heavy rain and high surf along the coast. Long term forecast has Earl moving into the Canadian Martimes this weekend.
Western Atlantic – The low pressure located approximately 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles will most likely become a tropical depression today as it tracks westward in Earl’s wake. And if that was not enough, another tropical wave has come off of the African continent and could become another tropical cyclone in 3 to 5 days.
About the Swinden Group
The Swinden Group provides companies and organizations security, investigations, and risk management services worldwide. Severe Weather Advisories is a subscription based service provided by the Swinden Group to corporations and business travelers so that they are prepared for severe weather that may negatively impact business and travel.
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The Swinden Group, LLC
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